The Dodgers

I'm going to interrupt the quickie analysis/predictions track to look at the Dodgers, my favorite team, in a bit more depth.  Traditionally, the Dodgers are a pitching first team that struggles to score; the common perception is that this team actually may reverse that - certainly there is more concern over the rotation than the lineup.  Here's one possible lineup:

Furcal SS

Martin C

Ramirez LF

Ethier RF

Kemp CF

Loney 1B

Hudson 2B

Blake 3B

Pitcher

It certainly does not have any particular weak spots - each player should be at least an average hitter for his position, with a decent chance of outperforming that, and Ramirez, Martin, and Furcal could all be top 3 at their positions.  There is some depth on the bench - Juan Pierre may be hideously overpaid, but he's not a bad option for a 4th outfielder and is certainly great to have as a pinch runner; Mark Loretta is a solid backup and Blake DeWitt, though he'll start the year in AAA, proved last year that he can at least do a decent job if needed at 3B.  Backup SS is a bit more troublesome, especially given Furcal's injury history, and unfortunately the likely backup 1B, Doug Mientkiewicz, hits like the utility player he may be used as.  The biggest concern here is that there isn't a remotely intimidating bat to use as a PH off the bench.

The pitching provides slightly greater concern - the rotation projects to be Billingsley, Wolf, Kuroda, Kershaw, and McDonald.  Best case scenario, the Dodgers get 200 innings each out of Billingsley, Wolf, and Kuroda, 170-180 out of Kershaw, and 150 out of McDonald, with adequate filler coming from a group including Eric Milton, Jeff Weaver, Eric Stults, and Claudio Vargas.  Billingsley and Kershaw pitch like #1s (they both have the stuff to do so) and Kuroda, Kershaw, and McDonald like #3s (probably the reasonable ceiling for all three).  Worst case scenario sees injuries or ineffectiveness from Billingsley (threw a lot of innings last year and broke his leg in the offseason), Wolf (injury-prone), Kershaw (first full year in the rotation), and/or McDonald (only a handful of major league innings).

The bullpen was a strength last year; it has lost Saito, Beimel, and Chan Ho Park, and Cory Wade has apparently looked bad so far this spring.  With that said, Broxton and Kuo both have great stuff and should be highly effective, and the Dodgers certainly have some strong arms and a number of possibilities to fill out the pen.  It's not as good as last year, and I don't expect it to be one of the top couple in the NL, but I can't say it's something I worry greatly about.

So what's the overall prognosis?  The Dodgers won 84 games last year; even in a worst case scenario, I don't think they'll do much worse than that - at the start of the season, they've improved at 3B, 2B, LF, and CF (given that they won't be giving any at bats to Andruw Jones).  If Furcal stays healthy, they'll improve at SS as well.  So worst case scenario, where they're hit hard by injuries, especially in the pitching staff, I'd go with 82-80.  Best case scenario, where the pitching comes along as advertised and the batting order has no major injuries, I think they could win 95 games.  Realistically, though, I'll peg them at 89 wins, and a narrow NL West title.