March 31, 2009

NL Central

Other predictions: AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL West

Onwards to the NL Central, home of the NL's best team by a good margin:

Cubs
Strengths: Deep and talented rotation; Soto, Aramis Ramirez, Soriano, Bradley, and Lee make for a dangerous middle of the order; back end of the bullpen should be pretty good with Marmol, Gregg, and Heilman (and possibly Samardzija).
Weaknesses: Some concern about starting pitchers underperforming - Harden is injury prone, Dempster had a career year (in a contract year), Zambrano has a lot of miles on his arm.  Center field platoon looks questionable both offensively and defensively.
Record: 95-67

Milwaukee Brewers
Strengths: Lots of talent, most of it young, on the field - Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Hart, Hardy.  Yovani Gallardo
Weaknesses: Not great fielding team; starting pitching after Gallardo is mediocre at best (and that's generous), relief pitching is worse.  As a team, don't get on base particularly well.  Everyone is still waiting for Weeks to "break out."  Gallardo missed most of last year due to injury.
Record: Gallardo can't overcome the loss of Sabbathia and Sheets, and the rest of the pitching staff is just older and worse.  84-78

St. Louis Cardinals
Strengths: Albert Pujols. Albert Pujols. Albert Pujols.  There are whispers that starting pitching could be surprisingly good, led by healthy Carpenter; they always do seem to get a lot out of retreads in the rotation.
Weaknesses: I'll believe it when I see it.  Several candidates for regression to the mean.
Record: Barry Bonds showed how much difference one amazing player makes, and I think Pujols does that for this team.  LaRussa always seems to get the most out of his players, but even with all that, I can't go higher than 82-80.

Cincinnati Reds
Strengths: Pitching depth; some good young talent around the field (especially Jay Bruce).
Weaknesses: Looking at little offensive production from SS, LF, and CF, so their young players will have to step up big time to carry the offense. Dusty Baker.
Record: They're a popular sleeper pick because of their pitching depth, but I don't see it being good enough to carry a weak offense to contention.  81-81

Houston Astros
Strengths: Berkman, Lee, Pence, Oswalt.  Valverde should be a solid closer.
Weaknesses: Everyone after Oswalt in the rotation.  C, 2B, 3B, CF
Record: In line for a major disappointment after last year's deceptively good record - 71-91.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Strengths: They're young, so there are plenty of breakout candidates.
Weaknesses: Most of the team.
Record: 68-94

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