April 5, 2009

AL Central

Previous picks: AL West, NL East, NL Central, NL West
More mediocrity here - really, the AL is three great teams and a bunch of middling ones.

Cleveland Indians
Strengths: Grady Sizemore.  Solid lineup with very good upside if Peralta, Martinez, and Hafner hit like they have in the past and a few of the kids step up (such as Choo and Cabrera).  Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona could make a very good 1-2 in the rotation, and the bullpen could be excellent.
Weaknesses: Huge questions in the rotation after Carmona, and even he and Lee are no sure things, given inconsistencies over the past couple years.  Some downside in the lineup, especially if Hafner continues to decline.
Record: 85-77

Detroit Tigers
Strengths: Cabrera, Ordonez, Granderson, and Guillen make for a dangerous top of the lineup, and Polanco and Laird provide a bit of depth to that.  Rotation has upside, with a potential Cy Young candidate in Verlander, and decent young arms in Jackson, Galarraga, Miner, and Porcello, plus Ryan Perry in the pen.
Weaknesses: Rotation is relying on largely unproven arms; bullpen is suspect at best.  Cabrera and Guillen are potentially defensive disasters.
Record: I didn't expect to be optimistic about this team, but I think their young arms may actually make them into a contender.  With that said, I can't really go higher than 82-80, but that's a big step up from last year.

Chicago White Sox
Strengths: Solid rotation depth; potential to score some runs with Carlos Quentin, Thome, Konerko, Alexei Ramirez, and Dye.  Some hard-throwing arms in the pen behind Jenks.
Weaknesses: Rotation doesn't have a #1... or really a #2.  Heart of lineup is aging and could begin to collapse (Thome, Konerko, Dye, and Pierzynski).  How much will they get from Dewayne Wise, Josh Fields, and Chris Getz at CF, 3B, and 2B?
Record: I like the depth of their rotation enough that I don't think they'll collapse, but I think we're more likely to see the downside of the lineup than the upside. 78-84

Minnesota Twins
Strengths: Joe Mauer, Morneau (to a lesser extent), depth in the starting rotation, Joe Nathan.
Weaknesses: When will Mauer be healthy? Injuries also at the top of the rotation; where does the offense come from after Mauer and Morneau?
Record: I wanted to be more optimistic on this team, but without Mauer they just look anemic on offense and I don't see the pitching staff making up for it.  77-85.

Kansas City Royals
Strengths: Some good young talent in Gordon and Butler.  Nice top of the rotation with Greinke and Meche; Soria is nasty closing.
Weaknesses: Most of the rest of the team.  Sidney Ponson is supposedly the #4 starter.
Record: There are reasons to be optimistic, but far more reasons to be pessimistic.  Apologies to Joe Posnanski, but 73-89 (UPDATE: bumped up one win to make the numbers work better).

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