April 5, 2009

AL West

Other picks: AL Central, NL East, NL Central, NL West

The common consensus seems to be that the NL West is the weakest division in baseball, but I think it's going to be better than the AL West, and depending on how one measures division strength, it could rival both the AL and NL Central.  In any case, the AL West projects to be a mosh pit of mediocrity this year, as the Angels got awfully lucky with their win total last year (relative to their run differential) and have taken steps backward over the offseason between losing out on Teixeira and the injuries to their pitching staff.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Strengths: When healthy, their starting pitching has top-flight talent and depth; their bullpen is always effective (doubtless a reflection of manager Mike Scioscia), and promises to be so even with Brian Fuentes replacing KRod.  Their lineup could be strong and deep - as long as the veterans can stay healthy and the kids realize their full potential.
Weaknesses: Their top 2 starters are starting on the DL, and could be missing significant time; without them, the rotation is pedestrian at best.  The whole outfield is aging quickly, and it's not too hard to envision the lineup falling into mediocrity with their decline and ho-hum performances from Kendrick and Morales.
Record: 85-77.  As long as this team makes the playoffs, they could be dangerous if Ervin Santana and Lackey are healthy and effective by the end of the year.  I doubt they'll come in as favorites, but they're capable of pulling off an upset.

Texas Rangers
Strengths: Lineup - they have young talent all over the field, anchored by Josh Hamilton in CF, Ian Kinsler at 2B, and to a lesser extent Michael Young at 3B.  They'll score runs in bunches.
Weaknesses: Pitching - when your #1 (Millwood) had an ERA over 5 last year, and your #3 hasn't pitched in the majors since 2006, you know you're in trouble.  The question is whether they can keep it low enough for the hitters to win it.
Record: 80-82; I think this team surprises and keeps it interesting until near the end of the season. UPDATE: Bumped up one win to make the numbers work out.

Oakland Athletics
Strengths: Made some nice offseason additions to improve a moribund lineup from last year, adding Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera, and Nomar as a backup - they should score enough runs now, if not tons.
Weaknesses: Injuries are derailing the starting pitching, so that they have to rely on young guns with very little major league experience - they have about 400 major league innings in their 5 starters combined.  A couple of them may have strong years, but it's pretty unlikely all, or even most, will.
Record: I just don't trust the pitching, and the hitting will be no better than solid. 76-86.

Seattle Mariners
Strengths: A new front office.  Felix Hernandez and Eric Bedard; some good young talent, including Clement, Balentien, and Morrow.
Weaknesses: Pretty much everywhere else on the diamond, with the possible exception of Beltre at 3B and Gutierrez in RF.
Record: Poor Seattle fans will have to endure another miserable season, yet one not quite bad enough to end up with the top pick in the draft.  68-94.

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