Looking back on the NL predictions

In the interests of time, a slightly shorter post looking back on my NL picks before we move on to the AL East ones.  Full picks themselves: East, Central, West.  I also found it interesting to compare these to Keith Law's picks and the BP Pecota picks (both Insider only, I think).  Oh, and here are Rob Neyer's (no win totals).

To summarize, my own on the left, Keith's in the middle, BP on the right:

PB KLaw BP

NL East W L GB NL East W L GB NL East W L GB

Mets 91 71 --- Mets 89 73 --- Mets 92 70 ---

Phillies 89 73 1 Braves 85 77 4 Braves 87 75 5

Braves 81 81 9 Phillies 83 79 6 Phillies 87 75 5

Marlins 79 83 11 Marlins 78 84 11 Nationals 77 85 15

Nationals 69 93 22 Nationals 75 87 14 Marlins 71 91 21

NL Central W L GB NL Central W L GB NL Central W L GB

Cubs 95 67 --- Cubs 94 68 --- Cubs 95 67 ---

Brewers 84 78 11 Cardinals 87 75 7 Brewers 83 79 12

Cardinals 82 80 13 Brewers 84 78 10 Cardinals 82 80 13

Reds 81 81 14 Reds 80 82 14 Reds 79 83 16

Astros 71 91 24 Pittsburgh 68 94 26 Astros 70 92 25

Pirates 68 94 27 Houston 66 96 28 Pirates 64 98 31

NL West W L GB NL West W L GB NL West W L GB

Dodgers 90 72 --- Dodgers 88 74 --- Dodgers 93 69 ---

Dbacks 88 74 2 Dbacks 85 77 3 Dbacks 88 74 5

Rockies 80 82 9 Giants 78 84 10 Giants 76 86 17

Giants 76 86 13 Rockies 78 84 10 Rockies 71 91 22

Padres 64 98 26 Padres 65 97 23 Padres 71 91 22

A couple reactions - I appear to be a little on the optimistic side on the Phillies and definitely pessimistic on the Braves.  It wouldn't surprise me if the Phillies end up a bit lower - they certainly have a lot of potential areas for regression - but in the end I think they and the Mets are the class of the division.  I'm holding firm on the Braves - that rotation just doesn't impress me all that much, and I don't think they're going to get production from their impressive farm system until next year.  Their best outfielder might be league average, and while Escobar, Johnson, and Kotchman are nice players, they're not the 3rd, 4th, and 5th best hitters on a real contender.

For the NL Central, I was amazed to see how much my picks mirror the BP projections.  The only semi-outlier of interest in this group is Keith on the Cardinals; if players like Ludwick, Ankiel, and Rasmus produce and Carpenter comes back healthy, I could certainly see that happening, but I'd call it the 75/80th percentile of their performance.

Not too much difference in the NL West - I'm a bit optimistic on the Rockies, and in retrospect I think I'm probably overestimating them, and they should be at least a couple wins lower; I think at that point I was looking to make some interesting picks, and they're a team that has been under the radar.

AL East and a wrap-up of the AL teams coming soon - I'm putting off looking at the AL BP projections until I've made those picks.

UPDATE: Added one win to the Mets, Nationals, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Padres in order to make my overall wins and losses (including AL) add up to be equal.