AL East

Previous picks: AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central, NL West, NL Summary

A couple of days late, but I suspect watching the first couple of games will do nothing but cloud my judgment.  This is clearly baseball's best division, with the 3 best teams in the game and two more half-decent teams that have hope for the future.

Red Sox

Strengths: Deep lineup with Youkilis, Pedroia, Ortiz, Bay, Lowell, and Drew, plus some upside in Lowrie and Ellsbury.  Deep pitching staff with two #1 starters in Beckett and Lester.  Deep bullpen with more arms in the farm system.  Strong defensively.

Weaknesses: Getting old at some positions - there is some risk Lowell and Ortiz will fade this year; Pedroia is a regression candidate; Drew is injury prone, and unsure how much production they'll get from SS and CF.  In a worst case scenario, lineup becomes pretty mediocre.  Beckett, Lester (given workload increase last year), and Penny all have some injury risk, and Matsuzaka and Wakefield are both regression candidates.

Record: It's not hard to come up with scenarios where this team wins 86-89 games and misses the playoffs, but I can't say I see those scenarios as being particularly likely.  96-66.

Rays

Strengths: Deep, young, talented lineup, with dangerous bats in Crawford, Upton, Pena, Longoria, and Burrell.  Deep pitching staff headlined by Kazmir and Shields; should get boost from adding David Price to the rotation mid-season.  Very good defensively; some good bullpen arms.

Weaknesses: Bullpen could be deeper/more consistent; no true closer.  Back end of rotation is still a bit of a question mark with Sonnanstine and Niemann - both should be ok, but may be no more than a 4th or 5th starter (mainly a weakness in comparison to Red Sox and Yankees).

Record: 94-68.

Yankees

Strengths: ARod and Teixeira are the two best hitters in the division; Jeter and Posada are both still well above average, and Cano, Damon, Matsui, Nady and Swisher are all capable of good seasons.  Starting pitching should be both deep and strong, with Sabathia, Burnett, Chamberlain at the top and Wang and Pettite both capable of good seasons; Hughes and Kennedy are good options in reserve.  Rivera is still the best in the business as closer.

Weaknesses: Is Brett Gardner really the answer in CF?  How long will ARod be out, and how effective will he be when he returns from surgery?  Bullpen behind Rivera seems a bit questionable.  How much regression will we see from the older players?

Record: I feel like this is the team of these three that has the most upside and downside.  In the end, missing ARod for a month is going to make just enough of a difference, as they trail the Rays by one game - 93-69.

Blue Jays

Strengths: Very good defense; some potentially dangerous hitters in Wells, Rios, Snider, Lind, and Rolen; Roy Halladay; should be a pretty good bullpen.

Weaknesses: Injuries have destroyed the depth of the starting rotation - relying on multiple rookies.  If Wells and/or the young hitters like Snider and Lind struggle, they will have a tough time scoring runs.

Record: If this team were in the AL Central, I would give them nearly as good a shot as the Indians to win the division; in this division, though, I'll go with 78-84.

Orioles

Strengths: Also very good defense - plus at all three outfield positions, SS, and 2B (I think - not positive on Roberts).  Should have a solid lineup, especially if young players like Jones and Pie hit (Markakis almost certainly will); eventual call-up of Matt Wieters could give them an All-Star caliber catcher.  Bullpen should have some decent arms.

Weaknesses: Starting pitching is probably, at best, two #3 starters, a #6, and two #7s.

Record: Given their starting pitching and their division, I may be overly optimistic on this team, but I think their defense and offense will be strong enough to get them near .500 - 77-85.